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Text File  |  1993-11-04  |  8KB  |  357 lines
  1. { From user Suresh Chanmugam, Project House at Thu, Nov 4, 1993 6:31 PM}
  2.  
  3.  
  4. { System Variables with non-default values: }
  5. Samplesize := 200
  6. Distribsize := 30
  7. Typechecking := 1
  8. Checking := 1
  9. Saveoptions := 2
  10. Savevalues := 0
  11.  
  12.  
  13. { Non-default Time SysVar value: }
  14. Time := [0]
  15.  
  16. Project House
  17. Title: House cost~
  18. analysis
  19. Description: Analysis of costs and benefits of buying a house, relative to renting.
  20. Author: Max Henrion
  21. Date: Wed, Jun 6, 1990 12:38 AM
  22. Saveauthor: Suresh Chanmugam
  23. Savedate: Thu, Nov 4, 1993 6:31 PM
  24. Diagstate: 1,32,53,460,285,1
  25. Fontstyle: Helvetica, 12
  26. Fileinfo: 0,-1,7884,Project House,House
  27. Getresource Pagesetup,1
  28.  
  29. Decision Price
  30. Title: Buying~
  31. price
  32. Units: $K
  33. Description: Total price of house (including closing costs)
  34. Definition: 400K
  35. Location: 48,96
  36. Nodesize: 36,20
  37.  
  38. Decision Downpaymt
  39. Title: Down~
  40. payment
  41. Units: $
  42. Description: Down payment on house at purchase.
  43. Definition: 120K
  44. Location: 48,176
  45. Nodesize: 36,20
  46. Windstate: 1,40,50
  47.  
  48. Chance Years
  49. Title: Years~
  50. owned
  51. Units: years
  52. Description: Length of time from buying to selling, ~
  53. (or horizon for analysis)
  54. Definition: 10
  55. Location: 144,32
  56. Nodesize: 32,20
  57.  
  58. Chance Mortgage
  59. Title: Loan
  60. Units: $
  61. Description: Total mortgage (loan) amount.
  62. Definition: Price - DownPaymt
  63. Location: 144,176
  64. Nodesize: 32,20
  65.  
  66. Objective Net_diff
  67. Title: Annualized~
  68. housing cost
  69. Units: $/year
  70. Description: The net annualized difference between buying and renting a house, including everything I can think of.
  71. Definition: Ann_profit - Annual_house
  72. Location: 352,136
  73. Nodesize: 52,20
  74. Windstate: 1,126,197
  75. Valuestate: 1,139,100,460,262,0,MIDM
  76.  
  77. Model Ann_costs
  78. Title: Annual~
  79. costs
  80. Description: Annual costs, such as taxes, insurance and rent are calculated in this submodel.
  81. Author: Max's
  82. Date: Wed, Sep 26, 1990 11:30 PM
  83. Saveauthor: henrion
  84. Savedate: Tue, Oct 16, 1990 4:04 PM
  85. Location: 240,176
  86. Nodesize: 40,20
  87. Diagstate: 1,32,67,460,267,1
  88. Fontstyle: Helvetica, 12
  89.  
  90. Variable Apr
  91. Title: Mortgage~
  92. APR
  93. Units: %/year
  94. Description: Annual percentage rate for Mortgage.
  95. Definition: 10.5%
  96. Location: 48,304
  97. Nodesize: 36,20
  98.  
  99. Include 1,-1,7884,Library Account_lib,Accounting library
  100.  
  101. Location Account_lib: 360,216
  102. Nodesize Account_lib: 48,20
  103.  
  104. Variable House_rent
  105. Title: Rent from~
  106. house
  107. Units: $/year
  108. Description: Annual rent from tenants in house, net of rental costs.
  109. Definition: Normal(700, 50)*12
  110. Location: 48,168
  111. Nodesize: 36,20
  112.  
  113. Variable Taxrate
  114. Title: Marginal~
  115. tax rate
  116. Units: %
  117. Description: Marginal tax rate including federal and state taxes.~
  118. ~
  119. Uncertainty about possible increases in Federal and/or state taxes, with expectation 2% +-2%.
  120. Definition: 33%+9%+Normal(2%,2%)
  121. Location: 48,120
  122. Nodesize: 36,20
  123.  
  124. Chance Payments
  125. Title: Annual~
  126. payments
  127. Units: $/year
  128. Description: Annual payments on mortgage, interest plus principle.~
  129. Assumes fixed rate mortgage, over 30 years. Equal payments~
  130. at the end of each month.
  131. Definition: Mortgage*12*Mort_monthly(Interest, 30)
  132. Location: 48,24
  133. Nodesize: 36,20
  134. Windstate: 1,515,94
  135.  
  136. Chance Tax_red
  137. Title: Reduction~
  138. in taxes
  139. Units: $/year
  140. Description: Annual reduction in taxes due to deductibility of interest payments. (Reduced due to increase in income from
  141. house rent).
  142. Definition: Taxrate*(Interest_pay + Property_tax - House_rent )
  143. Location: 168,96
  144. Nodesize: 40,20
  145. Windstate: 1,186,479
  146.  
  147. Chance Annual_house
  148. Title: Net annual~
  149. house cost
  150. Units: $/year
  151. Description: Net  annual cost of house taking into account annual payments, property taxes, maintenance, insurance, receiving rent, and tax deductions.~
  152. excluding appreciation of house and loss of interest on DownPayment.
  153. Definition: Payments  + Property_tax + Maintenance  + Insurance  - Tax_red - House_rent - Curr_rent
  154. Location: 360,96
  155. Nodesize: 40,20
  156. Windstate: 1,40,50
  157.  
  158. Chance Interest_pay
  159. Title: Interest~
  160. payments
  161. Units: $/year
  162. Description: Annual payments of interest on the mortgage.
  163. Definition: Interest * Mortgage
  164. Location: 48,72
  165. Nodesize: 36,20
  166. Windstate: 1,92,122
  167.  
  168. Chance Princ_pay
  169. Title: Principal~
  170. payments
  171. Units: $/year
  172. Description: Annual payment of principal (part of mortgage payments).~
  173. ~
  174. [Assumes always the same as first year.]
  175. Definition: Payments -  Interest_pay
  176. Location: 232,24
  177. Nodesize: 36,20
  178.  
  179. Chance Property_tax
  180. Title: Property~
  181. taxes
  182. Units: $/year
  183. Description: Annual property taxes.  Assumes state tax of 1% (proposition 13) plus 0.15% local taxes.
  184. Definition: Price*1.15%
  185. Location: 48,216
  186. Nodesize: 32,20
  187.  
  188. Chance Maintenance
  189. Title: maintenance
  190. Units: $/year
  191. Description: Annual maintenance costs for the house (not including improvements)
  192. Definition: Lognormal(4K, 1.2)
  193. Location: 152,232
  194. Nodesize: 48,12
  195.  
  196. Chance Insurance
  197. Title: Insurance
  198. Units: $/year
  199. Description: Annual cost of insuring the house.~
  200. Assumes cost of house is 50% of price for property, and insurance is 0.3%.
  201. Definition: Price*50%*Lognormal(0.3%, 1.5)
  202. Location: 152,200
  203. Nodesize: 36,12
  204.  
  205. Variable Curr_rent
  206. Title: Current~
  207. rent
  208. Units: $/year
  209. Description: Current annual rent.
  210. Definition: Uniform(750,820)*12
  211. Location: 256,216
  212. Nodesize: 32,20
  213.  
  214. Variable Points
  215. Title: Points
  216. Description: Fee for setting up mortgage as a percentage of loan.
  217. Definition: Uniform(0, 2%)
  218. Location: 136,296
  219. Nodesize: 28,12
  220.  
  221. Close Ann_costs
  222. Chance Interest
  223. Title: Interest~
  224.  rate
  225. Units: /year
  226. Description: Nominal annual fixed rate interest rate on mortgage.
  227. Definition: Normal(10.5%, 1.5%)
  228. Location: 144,240
  229. Nodesize: 32,20
  230. Windstate: 1,1325,86
  231. Valuestate: 1,88,282,460,192,0,MIDM
  232.  
  233. Model Cap_costs
  234. Title: Capital~
  235. costs
  236. Author: Max's
  237. Date: Fri, Jan 1, 1904 10:39 AM
  238. Saveauthor: henrion
  239. Savedate: Thu, Oct 18, 1990 3:29 PM
  240. Location: 240,96
  241. Nodesize: 40,20
  242. Diagstate: 1,32,92,460,228,1
  243. Fontstyle: Helvetica, 12
  244.  
  245. Variable Profit
  246. Title: Net proceeds
  247. Units: $K
  248. Description: Net profit from buying and selling house relative to~
  249. an alternate investment of the same downpayment~
  250. plus monthly payments. (In current dollars.)
  251. Definition: Sell_price -  Selling_cost - End_mortgage - Gains_dep
  252. Location: 216,80
  253. Nodesize: 48,12
  254.  
  255. Chance Sell_price
  256. Title: Selling ~
  257. price
  258. Units: $
  259. Definition: Price * (1+Appreciation)^Years
  260. Location: 56,80
  261. Nodesize: 32,20
  262.  
  263. Chance End_mortgage
  264. Title: Remaining~
  265. mortgage
  266. Units: $
  267. Description: Outstanding mortgage at selling time.~
  268. ~
  269. Definition is inanaccurate Needs to be fixed.
  270. Definition: Mortgage - Princ_pay*Years
  271. Location: 56,128
  272. Nodesize: 40,20
  273.  
  274. Chance Discount
  275. Title: Discount~
  276. rate
  277. Units: /year
  278. Description: Discount rate for converting a future gain into annual amounts. Assumed equal to the posttax interest rate available were the downpayment invested elsewhere.
  279. Definition: Interest_dep
  280. Location: 264,184
  281. Nodesize: 36,20
  282.  
  283. Chance Ann_profit
  284. Title: Annualized profit~
  285. from appreciation
  286. Units: $/year
  287. Description: Net profit converted into equivalent equal annual amounts using specified discount rate over years of owning the house.
  288. Definition: Profit *Annualize(discount, years)
  289. Location: 344,80
  290. Nodesize: 60,20
  291.  
  292. Chance Selling_cost
  293. Title: Selling~
  294. costs
  295. Units: $
  296. Description: Cost of selling the house. 6% commission to agent.
  297. Definition: 6%  * Sell_price
  298. Location: 144,32
  299. Nodesize: 32,20
  300.  
  301. Chance Gains_dep
  302. Title: Foregone~
  303. interest on~
  304. Downpayment
  305. Units: $
  306. Description: Accumulated posttax capital gains assuming downpayment was invested at a posttax interest rate of ...
  307. Definition: DownPaymt*(1+ Interest_dep)^Years
  308. Location: 176,136
  309. Nodesize: 52,28
  310.  
  311. Chance Interest_dep
  312. Title: Interest~
  313. rate avail
  314. Units: /year
  315. Description: Post-tax interest rate available on the downpayment were it invested elsewhere than a house, e.g. in a CD, or municipal bond.
  316. Definition: Normal(6%,1.5%)
  317. Location: 56,184
  318. Nodesize: 36,20
  319.  
  320. Close Cap_costs
  321. Variable Appreciation
  322. Title: Annual~
  323. appreciation
  324. Units: /year
  325. Description: Average annual percent appreciation of value of the ~
  326. house over the contract period (above inflation),~
  327. assuming no improvements.
  328. Definition: lognormal(8%,1.3)
  329. Location: 240,32
  330. Nodesize: 44,20
  331. Windstate: 1,200,60
  332. Valuestate: 1,167,98,420,231,1,PDFP
  333.  
  334. Chance House_cost_inputs
  335. Title: Uncertain inputs
  336. Definition: Table(Unc_input_labels)(
  337.    House_rent,Taxrate,Maintenance,Interest,Appreciation
  338. )
  339. Location: 352,312
  340. Nodesize: 56,12
  341. Nodeinfo: 1,0,0,1,1,1,0
  342.  
  343. Chance Importance
  344. Title: Importance
  345. Definition: Abs(Rankcorrel(House_cost_inputs,Net_diff))
  346. Location: 352,240
  347. Nodesize: 48,20
  348. Valuestate: 1,32,76,460,245,1,MIDM
  349.  
  350. Index Unc_input_labels
  351. Title: Uncertain inputs
  352. Definition: ['Rent','Tax rate','Maintenance','Interest','Appreciation']
  353. Location: 216,312
  354. Nodesize: 56,12
  355.  
  356. Close House
  357.